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Teppo felin antifragile investing

I get frustrated with the political ideology of the content. I've deleted the podcast, however, I have obviously returned. Description A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it.

David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus. We also discuss a number of behavioral finance topics such as mental accounting, sunk costs, and goal myopia. Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund.

Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller, and is highly influential on the investing philosophy of Money for the Rest of Us. She retired from the game in Oster argues that running your family life the way you'd run your own business makes for a better family in today's crazy world. And where possible, the myriad of decisions you make should be based on hard data, at least when it's available. Sandra Faber on the Future of the Earth Nov 08, Of all the scenarios that keep astrophysicist Sandra Faber up at night, it's not the Earth's increasing volcanism, the loss of photosynthesis, or even the impact of a massive asteroid.

Rather, it's the collapse she's certain will result from the unbridled growth of the world's economies. Join Faber and EconTalk host Russ Roberts as they explore what the most inexorable law of physics has to do with economics and whether the world's growing economies pose a problem or provide the solution for the finiteness of planet Earth. Frey urges a stronger focus on virtue and human flourishing and a reduced focus on career preparation.

Roberts, despite his sympathy with the examined life, challenges the virtue of philosophical enquiry. At the end of the conversation, both guest and host defend philosophy. Bloom argues that suffering is underrated--suffering is part of happiness and meaning. This is a wide-ranging discussion of popular culture, religion, and what we hope to get out of life. This conversation has nothing to do with chocolate. It's about the strange world of underground fungi, found in the forest by specially trained dogs and used by chefs and home cooks around the world.

You will learn about truffle oil, cooking with truffles, truffle hounds, and the economics of all of the above. Quinones focuses on the devastation caused by methamphetamine and fentanyl, the latest evolution of innovation in the supply of mind-altering drugs in the United States. The latest versions of meth, he argues, are more emotionally damaging than before and have played a central role in the expansion of the homeless in tent encampments in American cities.

The conversation includes an exploration of the rising number of overdose deaths in the United States and what role community and other institutions might play in reducing the death toll. Kling suggests ways to improve the administrative state--the agencies and regulatory bodies that often write the regulations that they enforce.

The conversation concludes with Kling's idea for holding public intellectuals accountable for their pronouncements. Hertz blames social media and the individualist, pro-capitalism worldviews of leaders like Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan for the rise in loneliness in the developed world.

Russ suggests some alternative causes. The result is a lively conversation about understanding and explaining social trends. Much of the conversation focuses on the work of Armen Alchian and Harold Demsetz, who both saw economics as a powerful tool for understanding human behavior and how the world works.

Weyl is worried about the concentration of corporate power, especially in the tech sector. But rather than use the traditional tools of antitrust, he has a more radical strategy for reorganizing corporate governance entirely. Hari, who has suffered with depression as a teenager and an adult, offers a sweeping critique of the medical establishment's understanding of depression and the frequent reliance on pharmaceutical treatments.

Hari argues that it is our lost connections with each other, with our work, and with ourselves that explains the rise in depression in recent times. Devereaux highlights the gap between the reality of Greece and Rome and how they're portrayed in popular culture. The conversation focuses on the diversity of ancient Rome and the military prowess of Sparta. Michael Heller and James Salzman on Mine! Heller and Salzman argue that ownership is trickier and more complicated than it looks.

While we tend to think of something as either mine or not mine, there's often ambiguity and a continuum about who owns what. Salzman and Heller explore a wide and surprising range of property rights from everyday life. The conversation includes a discussion of the insights of Ronald Coase on the assignment of property rights when rights conflict. Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson were two of the most influential economists of the last century.

They competed for professional acclaim and had very different policy visions. The conversation includes their differences over the work of Keynes, their rivalry in their columns at Newsweek, and a discussion of their intellectual and policy legacies. Munger says the best argument for a free market approach is not that it's perfect but that it's better than anything else we've been able to come up with over the centuries. Better at bringing people out of poverty, better at promoting wealth creation, and better at pushing up the standard of living for most of the people, most of the time.

Topics include what exactly is a free market, why specialization is so important, the case for case-by-case intervention, and the challenge of picking the prettiest pig. Drawing on research on inequality in Denmark with Rasmus Landerso, Heckman argues that despite the efforts of the Danish welfare state to provide equal access to education, there is little difference in economic mobility between the United States and Denmark. The conversation includes a general discussion of economic mobility in the United States along with a critique of Chetty and others' work on the power of neighborhood to determine one's economic destiny.

Easter thinks modern life is too easy, too comfortable. To be healthy, he says, we need to move out of our comfort zones and every once in a while try to do something, especially something physically demanding, that we didn't think was possible. Easter discusses rising levels of anxiety and depression in the West and why taking on challenges can be part of the solution. Boudreaux argues that a perfect storm of factors created a huge overreaction, including unnecessary lockdowns that accomplished little at a very high cost in physical and emotional health.

Instead, Boudreaux argues, we should have focused attention on the population most at risk of dying from COVID--the elderly and especially the elderly with co-morbidities. The conversation includes a discussion of externalities and the insights of Ronald Coase applied to the policies during the pandemic. Topics discussed include war, rage, terrorism, and what a modern warrior might learn from Homer. The book and conversation are based on a mile walk Junger took with buddies along railroad rights-of-way, evading police, railroad security, and other wanderers.

Junger discusses the ever-present tension between the human desire to be free and the desire to be interconnected and part of something. Along the way, Junger talks about the joy of walking, the limits of human endurance, war, and why the more powerful, better-equipped military isn't always the winner.

When a famous painting disappears into the underworld of stolen art, how does it make its way back into the legitimate world of auction houses and museums? Drawing on the archives of a private database of stolen objects--the Art Loss Register--Shortland discusses the economics of the art world when objects up for sale may be the result of theft. Shoup argues that most parking policies inflict unseen damage on the economy. He urges cities to charge for curbside parking and use the proceeds to improve the neighborhood beyond the curb.

Shoup also explains the surprising harm done by requiring new buildings to provide a minimum level of off-street parking. Leslie argues that, far from being a negative thing, conflict is often the essential ingredient that helps us get to the right answer or best solution. Because some of our best thinking comes in collaboration with others, learning how to disagree civilly when our views conflict is the key to productive conversation in business and in marriage.

The conversation includes a surprising defense of confirmation bias. In recent years, a number of scholars have claimed that millions of Americans live in extreme poverty, akin to the standard of living in the poorest countries around the world. Meyer argues that these studies are based on flawed surveys or particular assumptions that may not be justified.

The conversation also addresses broader challenges around measuring mobility and the American Dream. Riley argues that the challenges facing Black America go beyond racial discrimination and the threat of police violence.

He argues that both the history of Black Americans and the current situation has been distorted by activists who benefit from that distorted picture. Galef urges us to be more rational--to be open-minded about what we might discover about the world--rather than simply defend what we already believe, which she calls the soldier mindset. The conversation is a wide-ranging discussion of our biases and the challenges of viewing the world objectively. Is anger something we should vilify and strive to eradicate in ourselves?

Or should we accept it as a necessary and appropriate human emotion? Callard takes a fresh look at anger and has much to say about jealousy, desire, and forgiveness as well. What can we learn from research in psychology and behavioral economics about breaking the habits we want to change? Is that research reliable? And should Russ Roberts accept being overweight or keep working at finding the thinner man trying to get out?

Hakakian was born in Iran and came to the United States as a 19 year-old, not speaking any English, and carrying only the things she could stuff in her backpack. She tells Russ about the love affair she's had with her adopted country as well as where there is room for improvement. Rank looks at a wide variety of aspects of poverty. He argues that many widely-held views on poverty are inaccurate, and in particular he argues that most Americans will be poor at some point in their lives.

This is a wide-ranging and lively conversation on the nature of poverty and the challenge of ending or reducing it. Appearing roughly one year after his first conversation on the pandemic, Cowen revisits the predictions he made then and what he has learned for the next time. Kenner talks about the origins of the program, what students experience, and the injustice he sees in both the criminal justice system and the educational system in the United States. Megan McArdle on Catastrophes and the Pandemic Mar 22, Whether it's a pandemic or a Texas-sized ice storm that leaves millions of people without power, we'd like to avoid a repetition.

Megan McArdle of the Washington Post talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the challenge of learning the right lessons from the current crisis in order to prevent the next one. McArdle argues that we frequently learn the wrong lessons from the past in trying to prevent the harm from the catastrophes that might be waiting in our future. The Empathy Diaries is a memoir about Turkle's secretive family and how that secrecy turned Turkle into an acute observer, skilled at revealing the story behind the story.

She also chronicles the early days of artificial intelligence and the evolution of the computer. Topics in this conversation include the challenges of family, the role of technology in our lives, the limits of artificial intelligence, and the importance of Bambi. Drawing on an essay from his book, Leading a Worthy Life, Kass gives a broad overview of Aristotle's ideas on how to live.

This episode also discusses the listeners' votes for their Top 10 EconTalk podcast episodes for Human beings have desires about our desires. Can we change what we want? And how should economists and normal human beings think about doing the right thing, what we often call morality? Is acting morally self-interested behavior or is it possible to act selflessly? John Cochrane on the Pandemic Feb 22, Would the impact of the pandemic have been different if government and policymakers had been more open to more market-based responses and less committed to a top-down approach?

Cochrane believes outcomes would have been much better if governments, in the United States and elsewhere, had embraced approaches that relied more on market forces. They talk about the craft of being a poet, the business world, mentorship, loss, why poetry no longer seems to matter, and how it might begin to matter again. Ash leaves London and moves to the small fishing village of Newlyn, near where her mother grew up on the Cornish coast.

In Newlyn, everything revolves around fishing. Ash gets herself a bunk on a trawler and quickly learns how to gut fish with sharp knives on a rocking boat in the middle of the night. And so much more. McCullough traces the history of human empathy and tries to explain why we care about the welfare of people we don't even know. Newstok draws on Shakespeare and other great writers and thinkers to explore the nature of education and the life well-lived.

Shiffman argues that we should view terrorism, insurgency, and crime as being less about ideology and more about personal expression and entrepreneurship. He argues that approaching these problems as economists gives us better tools for fighting them. Buchanan received the Nobel Prize in for his work creating and developing public choice--the field which applies the tools of economics to politicians and political behavior.

After discussing the importance of public choice, Boudreaux and Roberts focus on two contrarian articles of Buchanan's where he argues for the importance of markets and life as processes rather than problems to be solved analytically. The conversation is about driving but also much more: how human beings interact with technology and what we gain and give up when we embrace technology driven by corporate profit-seeking. Blastland argues that the deeper you delve into science, medicine, astrophysics--pick a topic--the more you realize there is a lot we don't understand.

Things we can't explain. Blastland believes we would all do well to admit that and stop pretending that everything is knowable and every problem solvable. Bhattacharya, along with Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University, authored The Great Barrington Declaration, which advocates a very different approach to fighting the pandemic than current policy and practice.

Bhattacharya and his colleagues argue the best way to reduce overall harm is to focus protection efforts on those most at risk, while allowing low-risk populations to return to a more normal way of life. Bhattacharya argues that we have greatly neglected the costs of lockdown and self-quarantine.

Einstein focuses on the ability of local residents to use the zoning and permit process to prevent development of housing or to reduce the amount of housing that can be built. Milanovic argues that the Nobel Prize Committee is missing an opportunity to encourage more ambitious work by awarding the prize to economists tackling questions like the rise of China's economy and other challenging but crucial areas of scholarship. In the conversation, he lays out what those questions might be and discusses what we know and don't know in these areas.

Oster has been collecting data from K schools around the country. She argues that closing schools comes at a high cost for the students with little benefit in reducing the spread of the disease. The conversation ends with a discussion of parenting.

Happiness turns out to be a little more complicated than it sounds. Haybron discusses the good life and different philosophical perspectives on how to achieve happiness. Postrel tells the fascinating story behind the clothes we wear and everything that goes into producing them throughout history. The history of textiles, Postrel argues, is a good way of understanding the history of the world.

The book, published in , became a phenomenon, selling more than 5 million copies in 40 languages. Levitt talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the book's surprising success, the controversy it generated, and how it shaped his career. Levitt says, for him, "economics is about going into the world and finding puzzles and thinking about how understanding incentives or markets might help us get a better grasp of what's really going on.

DeBoer argues that there is little that can be done to change the distribution of success in K education. He argues that educational reforms like charter schools and No Child Left Behind are doomed to failure.

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Unfortunately, the vast majority of the public companies are within this category as explained by Hendrik Bessembinder in his study from Just a tiny number of stocks have turned out to be good long-term investments because the competitive marketplace forces most return downward. Airlines are very fragile: A recession reveals those swimming naked.

Currently, the coronavirus has halted tourism and transport, putting a lot of strain on airlines, a very fragile business. On the 5th of March , the International Air Transport Association IATA wrote a statement where they expect airlines to lose between 63 to billion in revenue in , depending on how the coronavirus spreads. The chart of Norwegian Air Shuttle an airline listed on Oslo Stock Exchange serves as a great reminder of the problems of investing in such an industry: The share price of Norwegian Air Shuttle.

For ten years the share price has gone nowhere. Despite this, as a consumer I have benefited handsomely by being able to travel cheaply back and forth between Norway and my home, usually at less than EUR for return tickets a 90 mins direct flight. Of course, there are exceptions in any industry: Southwest Airlines, for example. A capital intensive business is less likely to be a good investment fragile : Hassan Elmasry, then an analyst in Morgan Stanley, wrote the following in an article in The Journal of Investment Strategy Number 1 Companies that depend primarily on physical assets like real estate, factories and machinery for their competitive advantage are unlikely to earn reliably superior returns on their invested capital over the long term.

Physical assets invite replication by competitors which often leads to excess capacity, price competition and erosion of returns on capital. In contrast, companies whose decisive assets are intangible, such as brands, patents, licenses, copyrights and distribution networks, can earn consistently superior returns on relatively smaller amounts of invested capital.

Elmasry measured returns against capital intensity in 2 public companies from both the US and Europe from to His result found an inverse correlation between returns and capital intensity: The evidence confirmed our own anecdotal experience as professional investors. As previously discussed, we believe that this is because capital-intensive companies typically rely on tangible assets for their competitive advantage which can easily be replicated by competitors. This ease of replication encourages plentiful capacity, tough competition, weak pricing and lower returns on capital.

In contrast, companies that are dominated by intangible assets can benefit from a more benign pricing environment, higher returns on capital and superior organic compounding of wealth. Investors should benefit from an investment approach focused on low capital intensity companies driven by vibrant intangible assets.

His findings are summarized in this chart: Capital intensity and stock market return. Credit Suisse looked at the returns for 10 stocks in 68 different industries by looking at returns on invested capital. The graph below shows the difference between CROIC cash return on invested capital and the cost of capital. There are of course companies that make good returns in an industry that on average makes a loss, and there are companies that are losing money in an industry that on average is very profitable.

However, unless a company is outstanding, there are industries that perhaps should be avoided: CROIC deducted the cost of capital. Source: Credit Suisse. In the paper by Credit Suisse, they did a deep dive into the airline industry to investigate where the most profitable niches are. The figure below shows the profit pool for all these industries as a whole. Airlines and airports use the majority of the capital, but at the same time are the businesses with the lowest returns. Just a few businesses make all the returns — those with the least capital requirements — but the profits are too small to offset the value destruction from the airlines and airports.

In the edition the authors Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton, the three professors behind Triumph of the Optimists, contributed an article where they looked at the best industries in the US and UK between and The worst industry was shipping with only a 6. Shipping is a capital intensive business, while tobacco is the opposite. Companies come and go, and most companies simply vanish — they get merged, acquired, go into oblivion, or go bankrupt. Most companies and investments are very fragile.

Opposite, a business that is antifragile can prosper in unpredictable and random markets. We believe the best examples of antifragile companies are Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway. Unfortunately, these companies are rare, but we hope this article has given you some clues on what to look for. Robust is not antifragile, what is robust survives the crash, but what is antifragile does not just survive — it benefits from the disorder. This is key, for a system or company to be antifragile it must gain from the mistakes of members that fail.

From the investors point of view I think now it is a very interesting time to find good stocks. Having just experienced a generational Black Swan we now know who the survivors are. Of course, as Taleb points out, the trick is not to just survive, but to have benefited from the Black Swan. It is time now to look for other companies and industries that have gained competitive position. It may be a little early to tell who will be the long term winners for banks for banks, other financial stocks, and thing related home building, but it is time to start comparing current earnings of specific companies to their peak earnings in in order to see who has picked up a competitive advantage.

In business this is easy to understand. You want to own companies that get better in a period of stress. This means their management is able to learn from their mistakes or even better is able to learn from the mistakes of their competition. Of course to learn you have to survive, so you have to start with a bullet proof balance sheet. Instead of consolidating his subsidiaries under central management in the name of economies of scale Warren Buffett keeps existing management in place to build diversity, and to avoid the fragility that gets built into most very large companies.

It is highly unlikely that all managements are going to make the same mistake at the wrong time. Warren Buffett has designed his company not to just survive a black swan, but to get stronger because of it. Berkshire Hathaway was built with the philosophy that large unpredictable events will happen. Rather than trying to predict the future Warren Buffett builds his business to withstand the unpredictable. The central point of antifragile is not complicated, but is that the best lessons we learn, we learn from our mistakes.

Antifragile Economics Everything that is fragile eventually fails. Concentration and large size makes a business fragile. For example a banking system with five very large banks is a fragile highly exposed to a Black Swan because the failure of one big bank can bring down the whole system. A system of the same size with medium and small sized banks is antifragile because the failure a few banks will not do serious damage the system, the system as a whole will get stronger with the lessons learned from the failures.

A free market economy is antifragile.