Contributor focus on value investing

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The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of AQR Capital Management, LLC, its affiliates or its employees. This information is not intended to, and does not relate specifically to any investment strategy or product that AQR offers.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which, but not all, are described herein. The hypothetical performance shown was derived from the retroactive application of a model developed with the benefit of hindsight. Hypothetical performance results are presented for illustrative purposes only. In return for buying and holding these value stocks for the long term, investors can be rewarded handsomely.

Value investors hope to profit from shares they perceive to be deeply discounted. Investors use various metrics to attempt to find the valuation or intrinsic value of a stock. Intrinsic value is a combination of using financial analysis such as studying a company's financial performance, revenue, earnings, cash flow, and profit as well as fundamental factors, including the company's brand, business model, target market, and competitive advantage.

If the price is lower than the value of the assets, the stock is undervalued, assuming the company is not in financial hardship. Free cash flow , which is the cash generated from a company's revenue or operations after the costs of expenditures have been subtracted. Free cash flow is the cash remaining after expenses have been paid, including operating expenses and large purchases called capital expenditures , which is the purchase of assets like equipment or upgrading a manufacturing plant.

If a company is generating free cash flow, it'll have money left over to invest in the future of the business, pay off debt, pay dividends or rewards to shareholders, and issue share buybacks. Of course, there are many other metrics used in the analysis, including analyzing debt, equity, sales, and revenue growth.

After reviewing these metrics, the value investor can decide to purchase shares if the comparative value—the stock's current price vis-a-vis its company's intrinsic worth—is attractive enough. Margin of Safety Value investors require some room for error in their estimation of value, and they often set their own " margin of safety ," based on their particular risk tolerance.

The margin of safety principle, one of the keys to successful value investing, is based on the premise that buying stocks at bargain prices gives you a better chance at earning a profit later when you sell them. Value investors use the same sort of reasoning. On top of that, the company might grow and become more valuable, giving you a chance to make even more money. Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, only bought stocks when they were priced at two-thirds or less of their intrinsic value.

This was the margin of safety he felt was necessary to earn the best returns while minimizing investment downside. Instead, value investors believe that stocks may be over- or underpriced for a variety of reasons. For example, a stock might be underpriced because the economy is performing poorly and investors are panicking and selling as was the case during the Great Recession.

Or a stock might be overpriced because investors have gotten too excited about an unproven new technology as was the case of the dot-com bubble. Psychological biases can push a stock price up or down based on news, such as disappointing or unexpected earnings announcements, product recalls, or litigation.

Stocks may also be undervalued because they trade under the radar, meaning they're inadequately covered by analysts and the media. They think about buying a stock for what it actually is: a percentage of ownership in a company. They want to own companies that they know have sound principles and sound financials, regardless of what everyone else is saying or doing. Value Investing Requires Diligence and Patience Estimating the true intrinsic value of a stock involves some financial analysis but also involves a fair amount of subjectivity—meaning at times, it can be more of an art than a science.

Two different investors can analyze the exact same valuation data on a company and arrive at different decisions. Some investors, who look only at existing financials, don't put much faith in estimating future growth. Other value investors focus primarily on a company's future growth potential and estimated cash flows. And some do both: Noted value investment gurus Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, who ran Fidelity Investment's Magellan Fund for several years are both known for analyzing financial statements and looking at valuation multiples, in order to identify cases where the market has mispriced stocks.

Despite different approaches, the underlying logic of value investing is to purchase assets for less than they are currently worth, hold them for the long-term, and profit when they return to the intrinsic value or above. It doesn't provide instant gratification. Instead, you may have to wait years before your stock investments pay off, and you will occasionally lose money. The good news is that, for most investors, long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than short-term investment gains.

Like all investment strategies, you must have the patience and diligence to stick with your investment philosophy. Market Moves and Herd Mentality Sometimes people invest irrationally based on psychological biases rather than market fundamentals. So instead of keeping their losses on paper and waiting for the market to change directions, they accept a certain loss by selling. Such investor behavior is so widespread that it affects the prices of individual stocks, exacerbating both upward and downward market movements creating excessive moves.

Market Crashes When the market reaches an unbelievable high, it usually results in a bubble. But because the levels are unsustainable, investors end up panicking, leading to a massive selloff. This results in a market crash.

That's what happened in the early s with the dotcom bubble, when the values of tech stocks shot up beyond what the companies were worth. We saw the same thing happened when the housing bubble burst and the market crashed in the mids. Unnoticed and Unglamorous Stocks Look beyond what you're hearing in the news.

You may find really great investment opportunities in undervalued stocks that may not be on people's radars like small caps or even foreign stocks. Most investors want in on the next big thing such as a technology startup instead of a boring, established consumer durables manufacturer. Bad News Even good companies face setbacks, such as litigation and recalls. In other cases, there may be a segment or division that puts a dent in a company's profitability.

But that can change if the company decides to dispose of or close that arm of the business. But value investors who can see beyond the downgrades and negative news can buy stock at deeper discounts because they are able to recognize a company's long-term value. Companies are not immune to ups and downs in the economic cycle, whether that's seasonality and the time of year, or consumer attitudes and moods.

All of this can affect profit levels and the price of a company's stock, but it doesn't affect the company's value in the long term. Value Investing Strategies The key to buying an undervalued stock is to thoroughly research the company and make common-sense decisions. Value investor Christopher H. Browne recommends asking if a company is likely to increase its revenue via the following methods: Raising prices on products Decreasing expenses Selling off or closing down unprofitable divisions Browne also suggests studying a company's competitors to evaluate its future growth prospects.

But the answers to all of these questions tend to be speculative, without any real supportive numerical data. Simply put: There are no quantitative software programs yet available to help achieve these answers, which makes value stock investing somewhat of a grand guessing game. For this reason, Warren Buffett recommends investing only in industries you have personally worked in, or whose consumer goods you are familiar with, like cars, clothes, appliances, and food. One thing investors can do is choose the stocks of companies that sell high-demand products and services.

While it's difficult to predict when innovative new products will capture market share, it's easy to gauge how long a company has been in business and study how it has adapted to challenges over time. Nonetheless, if mass sell-offs are occurring by insiders, such a situation may warrant further in-depth analysis of the reason behind the sale.

Analyze Earnings Reports At some point, value investors have to look at a company's financials to see how its performing and compare it to industry peers. It will explain the products and services offered as well as where the company is heading. Retained earnings is a type of savings account that holds the cumulative profits from the company. Retained earnings are used to pay dividends, for example, and are considered a sign of a healthy, profitable company.

The income statement tells you how much revenue is being generated, the company's expenses, and profits. Studies have consistently found that value stocks outperform growth stocks and the market as a whole, over the long term. Couch potato investing is a passive strategy of buying and holding a few investing vehicles for which someone else has already done the investment analysis—i.

In the case of value investing, those funds would be those that follow the value strategy and buy value stocks—or track the moves of high-profile value investors, like Warren Buffett. Investors can buy shares of his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, which owns or has an interest in dozens of companies the Oracle of Omaha has researched and evaluated.

Risks with Value Investing As with any investment strategy, there's the risk of loss with value investing despite it being a low-to-medium-risk strategy. Below we highlight a few of those risks and why losses can occur. The Figures are Important Many investors use financial statements when they make value investing decisions.

So if you rely on your own analysis, make sure you have the most updated information and that your calculations are accurate. If not, you may end up making a poor investment or miss out on a great one. One strategy is to read the footnotes. Extraordinary Gains or Losses There are some incidents that may show up on a company's income statement that should be considered exceptions or extraordinary.

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which, but not all, are described herein. The hypothetical performance shown was derived from the retroactive application of a model developed with the benefit of hindsight.

Hypothetical performance results are presented for illustrative purposes only. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment loss. Certain publications may have been written prior to the author being an employee of AQR. This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or tax advice, nor is it intended to replace the advice of a qualified attorney or tax advisor.

AQR Capital Management is a global investment management firm, which may or may not apply similar investment techniques or methods of analysis as described herein. Intrinsic value is a combination of using financial analysis such as studying a company's financial performance, revenue, earnings, cash flow, and profit as well as fundamental factors, including the company's brand, business model, target market, and competitive advantage. If the price is lower than the value of the assets, the stock is undervalued, assuming the company is not in financial hardship.

Free cash flow , which is the cash generated from a company's revenue or operations after the costs of expenditures have been subtracted. Free cash flow is the cash remaining after expenses have been paid, including operating expenses and large purchases called capital expenditures , which is the purchase of assets like equipment or upgrading a manufacturing plant. If a company is generating free cash flow, it'll have money left over to invest in the future of the business, pay off debt, pay dividends or rewards to shareholders, and issue share buybacks.

Of course, there are many other metrics used in the analysis, including analyzing debt, equity, sales, and revenue growth. After reviewing these metrics, the value investor can decide to purchase shares if the comparative value—the stock's current price vis-a-vis its company's intrinsic worth—is attractive enough. Margin of Safety Value investors require some room for error in their estimation of value, and they often set their own " margin of safety ," based on their particular risk tolerance.

The margin of safety principle, one of the keys to successful value investing, is based on the premise that buying stocks at bargain prices gives you a better chance at earning a profit later when you sell them. Value investors use the same sort of reasoning. On top of that, the company might grow and become more valuable, giving you a chance to make even more money.

Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, only bought stocks when they were priced at two-thirds or less of their intrinsic value. This was the margin of safety he felt was necessary to earn the best returns while minimizing investment downside. Instead, value investors believe that stocks may be over- or underpriced for a variety of reasons.

For example, a stock might be underpriced because the economy is performing poorly and investors are panicking and selling as was the case during the Great Recession. Or a stock might be overpriced because investors have gotten too excited about an unproven new technology as was the case of the dot-com bubble. Psychological biases can push a stock price up or down based on news, such as disappointing or unexpected earnings announcements, product recalls, or litigation.

Stocks may also be undervalued because they trade under the radar, meaning they're inadequately covered by analysts and the media. They think about buying a stock for what it actually is: a percentage of ownership in a company. They want to own companies that they know have sound principles and sound financials, regardless of what everyone else is saying or doing. Value Investing Requires Diligence and Patience Estimating the true intrinsic value of a stock involves some financial analysis but also involves a fair amount of subjectivity—meaning at times, it can be more of an art than a science.

Two different investors can analyze the exact same valuation data on a company and arrive at different decisions. Some investors, who look only at existing financials, don't put much faith in estimating future growth. Other value investors focus primarily on a company's future growth potential and estimated cash flows.

And some do both: Noted value investment gurus Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, who ran Fidelity Investment's Magellan Fund for several years are both known for analyzing financial statements and looking at valuation multiples, in order to identify cases where the market has mispriced stocks. Despite different approaches, the underlying logic of value investing is to purchase assets for less than they are currently worth, hold them for the long-term, and profit when they return to the intrinsic value or above.

It doesn't provide instant gratification. Instead, you may have to wait years before your stock investments pay off, and you will occasionally lose money. The good news is that, for most investors, long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than short-term investment gains. Like all investment strategies, you must have the patience and diligence to stick with your investment philosophy.

Market Moves and Herd Mentality Sometimes people invest irrationally based on psychological biases rather than market fundamentals. So instead of keeping their losses on paper and waiting for the market to change directions, they accept a certain loss by selling. Such investor behavior is so widespread that it affects the prices of individual stocks, exacerbating both upward and downward market movements creating excessive moves. Market Crashes When the market reaches an unbelievable high, it usually results in a bubble.

But because the levels are unsustainable, investors end up panicking, leading to a massive selloff. This results in a market crash. That's what happened in the early s with the dotcom bubble, when the values of tech stocks shot up beyond what the companies were worth. We saw the same thing happened when the housing bubble burst and the market crashed in the mids.

Unnoticed and Unglamorous Stocks Look beyond what you're hearing in the news. You may find really great investment opportunities in undervalued stocks that may not be on people's radars like small caps or even foreign stocks. Most investors want in on the next big thing such as a technology startup instead of a boring, established consumer durables manufacturer.

Bad News Even good companies face setbacks, such as litigation and recalls. In other cases, there may be a segment or division that puts a dent in a company's profitability. But that can change if the company decides to dispose of or close that arm of the business.

But value investors who can see beyond the downgrades and negative news can buy stock at deeper discounts because they are able to recognize a company's long-term value. Companies are not immune to ups and downs in the economic cycle, whether that's seasonality and the time of year, or consumer attitudes and moods.

All of this can affect profit levels and the price of a company's stock, but it doesn't affect the company's value in the long term. Value Investing Strategies The key to buying an undervalued stock is to thoroughly research the company and make common-sense decisions. Value investor Christopher H. Browne recommends asking if a company is likely to increase its revenue via the following methods: Raising prices on products Decreasing expenses Selling off or closing down unprofitable divisions Browne also suggests studying a company's competitors to evaluate its future growth prospects.

But the answers to all of these questions tend to be speculative, without any real supportive numerical data. Simply put: There are no quantitative software programs yet available to help achieve these answers, which makes value stock investing somewhat of a grand guessing game.

For this reason, Warren Buffett recommends investing only in industries you have personally worked in, or whose consumer goods you are familiar with, like cars, clothes, appliances, and food. One thing investors can do is choose the stocks of companies that sell high-demand products and services. While it's difficult to predict when innovative new products will capture market share, it's easy to gauge how long a company has been in business and study how it has adapted to challenges over time.

Nonetheless, if mass sell-offs are occurring by insiders, such a situation may warrant further in-depth analysis of the reason behind the sale. Analyze Earnings Reports At some point, value investors have to look at a company's financials to see how its performing and compare it to industry peers. It will explain the products and services offered as well as where the company is heading.

Retained earnings is a type of savings account that holds the cumulative profits from the company. Retained earnings are used to pay dividends, for example, and are considered a sign of a healthy, profitable company. The income statement tells you how much revenue is being generated, the company's expenses, and profits. Studies have consistently found that value stocks outperform growth stocks and the market as a whole, over the long term.

Couch potato investing is a passive strategy of buying and holding a few investing vehicles for which someone else has already done the investment analysis—i. In the case of value investing, those funds would be those that follow the value strategy and buy value stocks—or track the moves of high-profile value investors, like Warren Buffett. Investors can buy shares of his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, which owns or has an interest in dozens of companies the Oracle of Omaha has researched and evaluated.

Risks with Value Investing As with any investment strategy, there's the risk of loss with value investing despite it being a low-to-medium-risk strategy. Below we highlight a few of those risks and why losses can occur. The Figures are Important Many investors use financial statements when they make value investing decisions. So if you rely on your own analysis, make sure you have the most updated information and that your calculations are accurate. If not, you may end up making a poor investment or miss out on a great one.

One strategy is to read the footnotes. Extraordinary Gains or Losses There are some incidents that may show up on a company's income statement that should be considered exceptions or extraordinary. These are generally beyond the company's control and are called extraordinary item —gain or extraordinary item —loss. Some examples include lawsuits, restructuring, or even a natural disaster. If you exclude these from your analysis, you can probably get a sense of the company's future performance.