Forex trader profitability statistics calculator

Some traders may assume that the system will win over time, as long as there is an average of at least one profitable trade for each four losing trades. Yet, depending upon the distribution of wins and losses, during real-world trading this system may draw down too deeply to recover in time for the next winner. A positive Z-score represents a value above the mean, and a negative Z-score represents a value below the mean.

To obtain this value, the trader subtracts the population mean from an individual raw value then divides the difference by the population standard deviation. Z represents the distance between the population mean and the raw score, expressed in units of the standard deviation. R counts the number of such series.

Z can offer an assessment of whether a forex trading system is operating on-target, or how far off-target it may be. Just as importantly, a trader can use Z-score to determine whether a trading system contains fewer or greater series of winners and losers than expected from a random sequence of trades— In other words, whether the outcomes of consecutive trades are dependent upon each other.

If the Z-score is near 0, then the distribution of trade results is near the normal distribution. The score of a sequence of trades may indicate a dependency between the results of those trades. Whether the Z value is positive or negative will inform the trader about the type of dependence: A positive Z value indicates that the profitable trade will be followed by a loser.

And, positive Z indicates that the profitable trade will be followed by another profitable one, and a loser will be followed by another loss. This observed dependency lets the forex trader vary the position sizes for individual trades in order to help manage risk.

Sharpe Ratio The Sharpe Ratio, or reward-to-variability ratio, is one of the most valuable probability tools for forex traders. If prices move against you, your margin balance reduces, and you will have less money available for trading. Realized and Unrealized Profit and Loss All your foreign exchange trades will be marked to market in real-time. The term "unrealized," here, means that the trades are still open and can be closed by you any time. The mark-to-market value is the value at which you can close your trade at that moment.

If you have a long position, the mark-to-market calculation typically is the price at which you can sell. In the case of a short position, it is the price at which you can buy to close the position. In case of a profit, the margin balance is increased, and in case of a loss, it is decreased.

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