Bruce greenwald handbuch value investing

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Greenwald: Yes. It has to do with the Warren Buffett instinct, the strategic assumptions. So Buffett tries to incorporate these judgments directly in his valuation. Let me give you three examples. Asset value vastly exceeds earnings-power value. The takeaway is that value is being destroyed by weak management. Does a discounted cash-flow calculation tell you that story? Not in a million years. Case two: Asset value and earnings power are about equal, which is exactly what would happen in a competitive market.

Growth is worth zero, because competitors enter and drive the earnings down. This is the Coca-Cola ticker: KO case. For that to be sustainable, there have to be barriers to entry. Are there economies of scale, barriers to entry, customer captivity? I can look at reproduction value, which is a hell of a lot better than some forecast 10 years into the future.

Graham and Dodd concentrated on the competitive businesses and the badly run businesses—the cigar butts. Buffett started to analyze those first, but today he prefers franchise businesses, or those with moats. He talks about a circle of competence. The second factor is the amount of capital that can be employed to earn these franchise returns.

That depends on how fast the franchise grows. The limits of sustainable growth are some fraction of the cost of capital. As we said, if growth equaled the cost of capital for any lengthy period, the return on capital would be infinite. We use 25 percent, 50 percent, and 75 percent as three standardized percentages. Based on more algebra, which we have consigned to the appendix, we offer Table 7. To flesh this out, if the return on incremental capital is 12 percent and the cost of capital is 8 percent, a business that grows 2 percent a year is worth 11 percent more than one with no growth.