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Most countries will require some type of adjustment to maintain fiscal sustainability. Within a matter of weeks, the macroeconomic outlook for the region has changed dramatically. Financing costs have risen, commodities fallen, and large losses of GDP now seem unavoidable.
It considers how countries can strengthen macroeconomic policy frameworks to mitigate these events and the monetary, fiscal, and debt management policy choices available. However, it also considers opportunities. More and better-targeted infrastructure investments can enhance growth prospects. And while public investment is constrained by tight budgets, the window of opportunity to pursue private financing to boost investments remains open as interest rates are still relatively low.
Viewing the debate from this long-term perspective allows for a focus on the structural factors that have prevented Latin America and the Caribbean from reaching the growth potential required to keep pace with faster growing regions and to fulfill the aspirations of its population. It reviews how countries are adapting to external conditions and how those policies may be improved. This year, the report focuses particularly on deeper and smarter regional integration as an attractive route to boost productivity and growth.
The report suggests that many countries must make fiscal adjustments to avoid higher debt without compromising the significant social gains of recent years, and details both the types and speed of policies that may be adopted. Monetary normalization may be a chronicle foretold, but countries still have the power to influence the outcome for their own economies. Fueled by the unabashedly pro-Russia Venezuelan state media and embraced by even more moderate sectors of Latin American societies, the narrative that the West's sanctions—rather than the invasion itself—are disrupting the global economy is more entrenched in Latin America than many Western observers believe.
In Brazil, the top two candidates in the upcoming presidential election in October have carefully avoided depicting Russia as the sole aggressor. Both episodes raised eyebrows in the West, but this stance should not come as a surprise. Past presidents have followed similar paths. This reality may complicate ties between Latin America and the United States and Europe, particularly if the United States were to adopt secondary sanctions that affect companies that continue to do business with Russia.
For Western policymakers, two concrete policy challenges emerge from this situation. First, the United States should lead efforts to blunt the impact of Western sanctions against Russia in the developing world. Otherwise, Russian claims that sanctions are the main culprit for the coming hardship in the developing world will fall on fertile ground. Second, the return of great power politics should not lead policymakers in Washington to allow short-term interests to undermine the goals of strengthening democracy and human rights.
The timing of the U. This led some to argue that promoting democracy matters in Washington only as long as it does not interfere with security and economic goals. While rapprochement between the United States and Venezuela may be a welcome development, U. In this context, one thing seems certain: the volatility caused by the war in Ukraine is likely to complicate efforts in Latin America to overcome an exceptionally challenging chapter in its recent history, shaped by a devastating pandemic, rising poverty levels, the rise of populist outsiders, and a continued erosion of democracy across the region.
Why Invest in Post Conflict Countries? What are the advantages of investing in post-conflict states? Former soldiers go back to work, government spending goes on repairing roads and bridges rather than buying arms and people become more confident in the future as the fear of violence recedes. This shift in economic activity creates an immediate boost to an economy, which often translates into high GDP growth rates.
Of course dislocation remains, military spending often remains high thanks to a fear that conflict may return and work can be often hard to find in peace time for those trained to kill, but the rebound effect is very real and a company can ride that wave of fast economic growth. Doing good: while it might seem perverse and somehow ethically dubious to be trying to make money in what was until recently a war zone — investment is exactly what a country that has been exhausted by conflict needs.
An injection of capital and confidence in the business sector helps the country on the long march towards normality. New investment can provide much needed jobs, allow the government to receive taxes and of course bring about a feel good factor across the country as a foreign venture gives a vote of confidence in the local economy.
Early entry to an open field can mean superior market share in the long run. One classic example of this approach is Ecobank, a successful multinational bank headquartered in Benin which saw an opportunity in the poor and conflict afflicted Central African region — providing investment, corporate and domestic financial services the Bank has successfully expanded and grown in the region, including post-conflict countries like Sierra Leone and Burundi.
Which post-conflict countries offer the best prospects? This is of course a hotly debated topic and many would wince at this list, but even the most miserable war torn regions can eventually enjoy an economic miracle. In fact, we must promote such investments to hedge against the all-too-common slide back into conflict. We must be willing to take on more risk, urgently investing in private-sector initiatives that catalyze regional growth.
It is quite possible to build businesses and healthy ecosystems that do just that. Dollars should be put to work to strengthen regional value chains, capture more components of the value chain within a region — rather than relying on pure commodity export, which is often related to the presence of conflict — and directly contribute to the eradication of extreme poverty.
The biggest key to success and sustainability is to partner with local leaders to ensure that such initiatives are locally led and community-driven. Outside-in interventions often fail because they neglect this all-important and foundational component.
But to continue the analogy, we must ask: Are there even fish in the pond? If there are, is there a place to sell a fish once you catch one? And are there businesses engaged in cleaning, processing, cooking and selling fish? In short, is there a complex and interconnected economic ecosystem around the business activity we are stimulating? If there is, then when our proverbial fisherman goes to work, our teaching not only benefits him, but it also contributes to the wealth of dozens or hundreds of businesses upstream and downstream.
This is how we can ignite growth movements in post-conflict countries that have the potential to quickly outpace the work or intervention that any one organization or agency could possibly undertake.
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